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Q1 2024 Commercial real estate outlook: The long way ’round

The U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) market enters 2024 balancing hopes for a better year with fears of a more significant downturn. Volatile interest rates consumed capital markets over the past year, but strong property fundamentals have acted as a counterweight. We expect the CRE market to enter a new phase of its correction, with activity improving as 2024 progresses but interest rates continuing to weigh on property values and equity returns.

Top 10 Predictions for Commercial Real Estate in 2024

The past couple of years have brought about unprecedented conditions in commercial real estate, and it may feel difficult to predict what’s coming next in the market. Economic conditions may be less certain than ever before, but tracking trends and opportunities is still a valuable practice for your firm moving into 2024 and beyond. As the industry continues to contend with macroeconomic turbulence and an ever-evolving post-pandemic environment, you’ll find both opportunities and challenges in the years ahead. You’ll want to be aware of upcoming trends across sectors and asset classes, as well as the strategies top firms are using to stay competitive amid challenges.

2024 Multifamily Outlook

Economic conditions appear to be moderating as we head into 2024 and expectations are for the economy to achieve a soft landing. We expect job, wage, and gross domestic product growth to slow but remain positive, as inflation continues its downward trajectory. Similarly, we expect the multifamily market to remain sluggish as it works through what will likely be peak deliveries of new supply for this cycle in 2024, with rent growth expected to be positive but below the long-term average and vacancy rates higher than average. With interest rate stability, cap rates and property values should stabilize allowing buyers and sellers to agree on asset value to facilitate more transaction volume. Read the full reportpdf(Opens a new window).

Multifamily Is Likely To Start Recovering in 2024—Here’s Why

In his recent article, BiggerPockets CEO Scott Trench did a great job enumerating all the reasons why multifamily is in the difficult position it’s in. If he had written these same things a year ago, I wouldn’t be writing this rebuttal—I would have simply said, “Ditto.”

But I don’t believe that the picture he has painted is an accurate reflection of where things are headed. Here’s why.

Yardi Matrix Forecasts Increase in Self Storage Delivery for 2024-2025

SANTA BARBARA, Calif., Feb. 21, 2024 – Yardi® Matrix’s Q1 2024 Self Storage Supply Forecast suggests an expansion in near-term supply, while the coming years will show a decrease.

The last quarter of 2023 registered an increase in construction starts and the under-construction pipeline, influenced by an uptick in new development. Consequently, the near-term forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been upped by 10.9 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively.

Rental Property Investing In 2024: Is It Worth It For Smaller Investors And Landlords?

Rising interest rates and home prices have put the breaks on a two-year run of red-hot rent increases and record-low mortgage rates. As a recession seems likely to become a reality in 2024, smaller investors and landlords who can adapt and capitalize on changing multifamily real estate dynamics will likely stay out of the deep end of the downturn.